Denise’s loyalty is tested.
Survivor: China Blog
11th Elimination: Erik
Ok, I have to admit that I felt a little foolish when the entire episode went by without Amanda making a play to eliminate Todd. After breaking down every possible final three combination involving Amanda in the last blog entry to prove why she should keep Todd around, I would’ve at least liked to have seen the thought cross her mind.
I am 99.9% certain that I saw her saying that she wanted to get rid of Todd in the previews for this week. The fiancé also agrees with me. Unfortunately, I erased last week’s episode off my TiVo, so I can’t go back and confirm it. At any rate, I’m 100% certain the previews for the next episode showed her targeting Todd, and everything I mentioned in the last entry about her needing him and Courtney to pull out the win still holds true. Bottom line: She’s an idiot if she tries to get rid of him.
1. Family Ties. After a mysterious absence last season, the “family member visits and helps with a challenge” challenge was back in full force. The big scandal this time was Todd’s Johnny Fairplay-esque bad news that his pregnant sister had miscarried. To be honest, the thought that Todd had made this story up to gain some sympathy never occurred to me. I mean, the trick’s been pulled off once before, so why would anyone try it again? Plus, Todd appeared way too genuine to be making it up. The guys’ a flight attendant, not a theatre major.
Of course this didn’t stop Erik from going around and planting the seed in everyone’s head that Todd was faking the whole thing – a pretty low move in my book. Let’s say he was right and Todd was making it up. There’s no way to prove it and what does it really matter in the long run anyway? Even if you knew for certain that he was faking, are you going to let something like that alter your strategy for a million dollars? If you haven’t figured out that Todd is a little sneaky by this point, you shouldn’t be in the final six. On the other hand, if you’re wrong, like Erik was, you come off looking like a heartless jerk.
In other interesting news, Amanda and her sister felt the need to use bird calls to find each other during the challenge while blindfolded in a maze. Apparently a simple “Amanda, where are you?”, “Over here!” exchange wouldn’t have been nearly as effective. I’ll admit, I was a little disappointed that none of the other survivors were bright enough to start making their own bird calls to throw the two off. If Amanda was shouting “Over here!”, then her sister would be able to recognize her voice and you wouldn’t be able to interfere. But when they started to break out the bird calls, there’s little chance that Amanda would be able to tell the difference between her sister’s version of a Northeastern Wood Lark and Peih-Gee’s impression of a Blue-breasted Finch. It would’ve been pure genius, and very funny to watch!
I am the only one who thinks of these things? I need to get on this show!
Anyway, Denise ended up winning and took Todd and Amanda with her on the reward challenge. Again, I was a bit nervous that they left Courtney all alone as the reject with Peih-Gee and Erik. You keep doing stuff like that and eventually somebody’s going to flop. Alliances need to work out these awkward situations before they happen and make up some kind of reward rotation to keep people from feeling like an outsider when they don’t get picked. It’s common sense, but nobody ever does it!
On a final note, was anyone else surprised to find out that Courtney was fathered by Don Imus?
2. The Loyal Lunch Lady. After the previews last week which showed Amanda targeting Todd, I was mentally preparing myself for his departure and a fifth straight season in which I failed to pick the winner after starting 4 for 9. However, my spirits were lifted when Todd got out to a huge lead in the immunity challenge. Of course he ended up completely collapsing like the Ravens down the stretch on Monday Night vs. the Patriots (had to get that in here somehow), and Peih-Gee improbably walked away with the necklace yet again. Now things were about to get interesting…
Peih-Gee and Erik began to make their push to get someone to flop and force a tie. They targeted Denise, as she was likely to finish in 4th place playing through with her alliance. At this point, I was just waiting for Amanda to join in the fun as well and give them the numbers to eliminate Todd. Thankfully, that never happened.
The two of them did, however, give Denise a scenario to strongly consider. If Denise stayed with her alliance, it was likely she’d go out fourth since she’s the biggest threat of the four to take home the million. If she went with Peih-Gee and Erik, they could bring her to the final tribal council as a unit of three and give her a shot at the money. As you can tell from the giant picture of Erik above, Denise held firm to her alliance. But did she make the right decision?
Well, by staying with Todd, Amanda, and Courtney and assuming that either 1. They knock out Peih-Gee next, or 2. Amanda turns on Todd, that would put Denise in the final four. At this point, with Todd, Amanda, and Courtney, or Peih-Gee, Amanda, and Courtney, Denise is the obvious person to vote off. She’d kill any of them at the final. This means that if Denise wants a spot in the final, she’ll have to win immunity to get there. (Personally, she’s the biggest threat in the game and I think they’re crazy if they don’t’ take her out next. But she was loyal to Todd, so that does count for something.) This basically gives her a 1 in 4 shot at the million dollars. However, when you consider that neither Todd or Amanda is an overly strong competitor, and Courtney is, well, Courtney, her odds of winning that final challenge actually increase quite a bit. Assuming this isn’t one of those lame “Exile Island Finale” challenges that are incredibly skewed against heavier people, she’ll have a good 50-60% chance of winning. That boils down to roughly a 55% chance of walking away with a million dollars by staying firm.
On the other hand, by going with Peih-Gee and Erik, she could end up in the final with our without immunity. However, you have to keep in mind that Denise would not have given them the numbers, only a tie. This would basically boil down to a face off between Todd and Erik. That’s a 50-50 match up right there. If Todd wins, Denise is finished. It’s also necessary to consider what would happen if the final four were Peih-Gee, Erik, Denise, and either Amanda or Courtney, and Amanda or Courtney won immunity. In this situation, Denise may still be voted out. So going with Peih-Gee and Erik was certainly no guarantee. But let’s say you did end up with an Erik/Peih-Gee/Denise final. Here’s how the votes would go:
Denise: James, Jean-Robert, maybe Todd
Erik: Frosti, Jaime, Amanda, Courtney, maybe Todd
Peih-Gee: Nobody
In that scenario, Erik’s walking away with the million dollars every time. So by staying true, Denise upped her odds of winning from zero to around 50%. Do I think she sat there and thought the whole thing through before making the correct decision? No. I think she just did what she felt was the right thing, regardless of whether it was actually the smart thing to do. And, you know what? You have to like Denise for that.
3. Where do we go from here? With five people left, I’d like to make a prediction of how the show will play out, just for kicks. Well, that and I don’t have a third observation for this week. This will be a little bit different than the Power Poll, because I try to take every scenario into account with the poll and base the results off who is the most likely to win in general. This will be some straight-up prognostication.
I see Amanda pulling the coup and taking out Todd, like a fool. (Peih-Gee and Denise are much, much bigger threats.) Then I see Peih-Gee sneaking out the final immunity, and Denise getting the axe. In a final which includes Courtney, Amanda, and Peih-Gee, the girl from China pulls off the improbable upset in her home country, and my head subsequently explodes.
You heard it here first, folks.
Survivor Power Poll:
| Ranking | Player | Comments | Last Week |
| 16 | Chicken | Eliminated. | 16 |
| 15 | Ashley | Eliminated. | 15 |
| 14 | Leslie | Eliminated. | 14 |
| 13 |
Dave |
Eliminated | 13 |
| 12 |
Aaron |
Eliminated | 12 |
| 11 | Sherea | Eliminated | 11 |
| 10 | Jaime | Eliminated | 10 |
| 9 | Jean-Robert | Eliminated | 9 |
| 8 | Frosti | Eliminiated | 8 |
| 7 | James | Eliminated | 7 |
| 6 | Erik | Eliminated | 4 |
| 5 | Courtney | Will she even get one vote in the final? | 6 |
| 4 | Todd | He desperately needs immunity next week. On the other hand, they’ve been playing up this “backstabbing” so much, you have to wonder if it will happen. Usually they like to make those types of results a surprise. I am mildly getting the impression that they’re creating a false sense of drama to generate hype for a predictable finish. | 5 |
| 3 | Amanda | Like I said last week, put her with Todd and Courtney, and she wins. Put her with Peih-Gee and Courtney and she has a prayer. Stick her with Denise and it’s over. | 3 |
| 2 | Peih-Gee | If she gets to the final without Denise, the game is hers. She’s got too many allies, and the other three have too many enemies. | 4 |
| 1 | Denise | Will they be smart enough to get rid of her? All signs are pointing to Todd and Amanda turning on each other and handing Denise the million dollars. | 1 |
