The tribes switch up and Aaron gets voted off.
Survivor: China Blog
5th Elimination: Aaron
Wow.
This was the type of episode that reminds you why you watch this show. I never, never would have thought I’d be putting up Aaron’s picture this early. But that’s the beauty of Survivor; the second you think you have the game figured out, everything gets completely flipped around. This episode went beyond a simple surprise tribe shake-up and became one of the most intensely strategic episodes ever. Looking back through my mental database of Survivor history, I can’t recall an episode that was this game-altering this early on in a season. But enough of the introduction, it’s to dissect this episode. If you need to take a bathroom break, now might be a good time. I’m done with the boards and have nothing to do today but write my Survivor blog entry. This is going to be lengthy…
1. T.M.I.
Love is certainly in the air, as Erik and Jaime have made their bid to become the season’s “couple”. It seems like almost every year there’s two people who fall into this trap. The “couple” strategy has worked all of once in Survivor history, and even then it took a mastermind like Boston Rob to stab everyone in the back to make it happen. Somehow with Erik running the show, I’m less than confident in their ability to pull it off. But even if these two have potentially ruined their shot at a million bucks, at least they’ve provided us with a wonderfully awkward moment.
While Erik and Jaime were hanging out in the water, the camera crew managed to sneak up on the two and eavesdrop on their conversation. How they managed to get the audio while standing what had to be a good fifty feet away on the shore, I’ll never know. However, they did manage to capture a textbook example of how not to get a girl. Here’s a little transcript of the conversation:
Jaime: What’s your middle name?
Erik: Taylor.
Jamie: Oh.
Erik: I wouldn’t mind going by Taylor.
Jamie: That’s a cool name.
Erik: I like Taylor.
Jamie: I have a friend named Taylor.
Erik: Really.
Yes folks, I assure you that the conversation was just as riveting in real-time as it is on this page. Anyway, since the exchanging of middle names is practically on the same level as making-out, Erik decided to go for the kill…
Erik: I like you a lot, so…
Jamie: (Slightly thrown off by this) Good, I like you too.
Erik: Alright.
Jamie: (Nervous laugh)
Erik: I just want to… get my… thoughts out. Just to know I’ve said it… I don’t know, I… I… I’m a virgin.
Look, I give all the credit in the world to Erik for showing some restraint, so I’m definitely not making fun of him for that. However, there are certain topics that you should probably hold off on discussing until you’ve actually held hands with a girl. These are the kind of topics you discuss when the timing is right, not as a transition from “what’s your middle name?”. For future reference, other phrases that belong in this category are: “My hemorrhoid is really itching me today”, “I have all of Clay Aiken’s albums”, and “Have you ever noticed how it smells a lot worse when you fart in the shower?”
2. The old switcheroo…
So both tribes received notice that they had to pick two players from the opposing tribe to come over to their side. The idea was a unique twist to the way they usually switch teams, but it was ultimately flawed. I’ll get to in a little bit. So the Red Tribe immediately realizes that the Yellow Tribe most likely got the same notice and are bummed out because they were completely dominating this game. When the Yellow Tribe got the letter they started jumping for joy because they thought their 5-7 deficit had just become a 7-5 advantage.
What?
It was completely dumbstruck that none of those five people even considered that the Red Tribe may have gotten the same note. Look back at the history of the game. When have the producers ever given one team something and not the other one, unless one of the team’s won it? The fact that these five were that clueless, really makes me doubt their ability to think their way through this game.
To keep you updated, the Red Tribe selected Frosti and Sherea, and the Yellow Tribe chose Aaron and James.
3. Think People!
I honestly believe that if I went on Survivor I’d have a 30-40% chance of winning the game. Sometimes you get stuck on the bad tribe like Terry during the Exile Island season, sometimes you get unfairly put in a hopeless situation like Aaron just did, and sometimes they manage to find a great cerebral player like Richard Hatch and Yul. You never know what’s going to happen in this game or who you’ll be up against, so I’m not cocky enough to say I would definitely win. However, nine out of ten people on this show overlook the little things that can completely change the game. If you can think outside the box even a little bit, you can really set yourself up. For example…
Let’s say I’m Todd, since he’s my pick, except I’m straight, I don’t look like one of the Keebler elves, and my career doesn’t involve pinning a pair of gold wings onto my shirt and asking people if they’d like a complimentary bag of peanuts. The second I see that letter, I know three things. One, James and Aaron are most likely heading over to the other tribe, and I want to keep them on my side. Two, if my team wins the next immunity, that means that either Aaron or James is getting voted off. Three, if my team loses immunity, Sherea or Frosti is going home. While they were waiting for the boats to do the exchange, Todd should’ve gotten his team together and laid everything out on the line. Remember, these people are NOT smart enough to do this on their own, so you have to spell it out for them. Here’s what I would’ve said:
“Look guys, we basically have this game wrapped up. We know it, the other tribe knows it, and most importantly, the producers know it, which is why they’re making up this twist to keep the game interesting. As things stood, we each had a one in seven shot of winning a million dollars. One in seven. If we don’t stay tight and stick together, we’re letting those other five people right back into the game. That means we now have a one in twelve shot. I don’t know about you, but I’m not too happy that my one in seven shot, that we eached worked so hard to get, has just become a one in twelve shot. But it doesn’t have to be that way. If we stick together, we can pick apart the other tribe easier than ever.
What we need is for Aaron and James to go over there and play it as nice as possible and completely rope the other tribe in that you’re all for them now. We’ll do the same thing over here with the new guys. When it comes to the immunity challenge, we’ll intentionally lose the next two. That way we go to tribal council and vote off Frosti and then Sherea. If we go and win immunity, all that will do is let them vote off James and Aaron. We HAVE to lose. Then we go into the merge up seven to three and it’s just a matter of picking them off from there. If we don’t do this and we win the challenges, Aaron and James are gone and it will be 5-5 and anybody’s game. It’s that simple, guys. Stay tight, lose the challenges, and then it’s every man for himself when it gets to the seven.”
If Todd lays it out like that, there’s nobody that doesn’t go along with him. It’s the ONLY smart thing to do. He picks off the other tribe. He gets it down to the final seven. Then he’s got the numbers with him, Amanda, Courtney, and Aaron. He picks off James, then Jean-Robert. If he can get rid of Aaron at the five spot, he does it since he’s way too physically dominant That leaves him with Amanda, Courtney, and Denise. Denise goes next, and then he’s most likely up against Amanda and Courtney in the final tribe council. Nobody’s voting for Courtney, so it’s basically down to him vs. Amanda for a million dollars. You just can’t set it up any better than that unless you can somehow get Jean-Robert AND Courtney up there. Good luck with that, though.
So that, my friends, is how you win a million dollars. That plan is about as fool-proof as they come, and I had that entire thing formulated before they even circled the first name on the list. I apologize for the bragging, but nobody even thinks of these things. In reality, it’s not very complex.
4. They were almost smart.
Two sentences ago, I said that nobody thinks of these things. Well, that wasn’t 100% accurate as Pieh-Gee did think of something similar. She was wise enough to realize that by only having two members switch from each side, you were actually better off losing the immunity challenge than winning it. That was the major flaw I referred to earlier. She definitely gets credit for being the only one of twelve to make that connection. However, they overlooked two very important aspects to the plan. One, you have to let your entire tribe know what you’re doing. Frosti and Sherea have been left completely in the dark. For all Pieh-Gee knows, the two of them have started making new alliances and will sell her up the river at the merge. Also, they didn’t even let Erik know, which doesn’t send him the right message. Two, if you’re going to tank, you need to be subtle about it. Don’t start laughing and blatantly not trying to win. If Pieh-Gee and Jamie do get it to 5-5 and then turn the game in their favor, they’ve just given the jury a BIG reason not to hand them the million. So that’s why they were almost smart. However, perhaps their biggest mistake was leaving James in the game…
5. Shout it from the rooftops!!!!!
If I’m James, I’m livid. I’m the most dominating player in the game and I have next to no chance to win because of some stupid twist that made it advantageous to tank the challenges. Furthermore, I had Jaime and Pieh-Gee openly admit in tribal council they were throwing the game. Next time the tribes get together for a challenge, I’m singing like a canary about what they did. I’m telling my old tribe to tank right back or I’m gone and the numbers will be 5-5. I’m telling them to sit Sherea and Frosti out, and then just sit at the starting line while I go and win the challenge by myself as Pieh-Gee and Jaime try to stop me. I don’t go down quietly for one second, and may just save my neck in the process.
I don’t think that James is smart enough to do that, but maybe he is angry enough. We’ll have to see. Also, if Todd and Amanda were smart, they should pass along the location of the hidden idol at the Yellow Tribe’s camp to James. From what I saw in the previews, they have to find the one at their camp. Todd’s sitting right on top of it.
So those are my thoughts for the week. It was an amazing episode to say the least. It looks like Survivor: China has officially “begun”.
Survivor Power Poll:
Did I tell you that the switching would completely destroy the rankings? Aaron was #4 last week! Then again, that does mean that for two out of the first three weeks of its existence, the #4 spot in the Power Poll got sent home. The original #4, Leslie got the boot the following week as well. Hmm… who don’t I like?
| Ranking | Player | Comments | Last Week |
| 16 | Chicken | Eliminated. | 16 |
| 15 | Ashley | Eliminated. | 15 |
| 14 | Leslie | Eliminated. | 14 |
| 13 |
Dave |
Eliminated | 13 |
| 12 |
Aaron |
Eliminated | 4 |
| 11 | James | Will he speak up and get his old tribe to tank right back? I’m guessing he’ll just give up. | 9 |
| 10 | Jean-Robert | I notice he’s been much better, but his tribe doesn’t. Can you imagine if James goes, and then Jean-Robert’s tribe turns on him before getting rid of Frosti or Sherea? Their hatred could cost them the game! | 11 |
| 9 | Frosti | Unless he gets an alliance going, I’m guessing they’ll get rid of him before Sherea | 6 |
| 8 | Sherea | She gets a fresh start. She’s probably the only one of the four people who switched that benefited from it. | 12 |
| 7 | Peih-Gee | If word of her plan gets out, she’s done. And she doesn’t have Erik to take her side. | 10 |
| 6 | Jaime | The way she acted during the tank was completely inexcusable. She probably did herself in right there. | 5 |
| 5 | Erik | It’s tough. I want to knock him for being the one who wasn’t smart enough to come up with the tanking scheme. Yet at the same time, he’s the only one who didn’t ruin his reputation. | 8 |
| 4 | Denise | She’s could quietly make her way to the Final Four and then sweep the challenges. | 7 |
| 3 | Courtney | The tag-along | 3 |
| 2 | Amanda | I’ll reserve judgment on this one until I see who pockets the hidden idol. | 2 |
| 1 | Todd | But until then, he still seems to be the one everybody trusts. | 1 |
