The Wolves miriade of close losses have put them on the playoff bubble.
2006-2007 NBA Mid-Season Report
After watching the Timberwolves squander a five point lead with a minute to go last night and lose their sixth consecutive game in a row, one thing was painfully clear: The Wolves need some serious mental conditioning.
I’m not talking about the “Ron Artest” brand of mental rehabilitation, but I am alluding to the Timberwolves need for some increased perspective and focus. Too many times last night the Timberwolves allowed the Sonics to waltz into the lane uncontested and score some easy points. Too many times the Wolves were forced to put up a bad look because the shot clock was about to go off, or worse for no apparent reason at all. It’s true that when you lose a game by one point, or in the Timberwolves case, set the NBA record for most overtime games in one month, it’s human nature to look back at all the little things that could have swung a loss in your favor. But when the margin between victory and defeat, the playoffs and the lottery are so close, maybe it’s not such a bad idea to take a moment and figure out if there’s some little thing to tip the scales in your favor.
When you take Timberwolves games this season that went into overtime or were decided by a basket or less, the Wolves current record could be as good as 26-16 if they made an extra basket each time, or as bad as 12-30 if they missed them all. That’s an incredible sway, and, although I don’t have the statistics, it’s probably the biggest margin in the NBA this season. The Timberwolves current 20-22 record lies fairly close to the middle, which might lead some to argue that there’s really nothing wrong with the way the Wolves have played thus far. I mean, you win some, you lose some, right? The fact that the Timberwolves have posted an 8-6 record in those close games, actually means they’ve come out ahead of the curve.
If you’re satisfied with mediocrity, then those people are indeed right. But I, for one, am not. And I don’t believe that this Timberwolves team should be a mediocre basketball team. They’ve played that way so far, but I honestly believe there’s no reason why this team shouldn’t have taken the Northwest Division. Maybe now with the hole they’ve dug themselves, it’s a stretch. But even if Utah is out of reach, there’s still absolutely no reason why this team shouldn’t make the playoffs in their current situation. Yet if this trend of letting too many close games slip by continues, they may be headed for a third trip to the lottery.
To harp on the Timberwolves close losses, may seem like I’m looking for an excuse. After all, every team has close losses. But in a league where the height of the players is often inversely proportional to their level of mental focus, making that defensive stop or refraining from hoisting a dumb shot can often be the difference between a game going in the win column or the loss column. If the Wolves took advantage of their opponent’s mental mistakes and limited their own by making those hustle plays, and taking smarter shots here’s what would happen: Those eight close wins would now become eight good wins. Those six close losses would be six close wins. And some of their four, five, six-point losses would become their new “close losses”. You see the logic? It’s true that every team has close losses, but the way you play determines which games become “close losses.”
If the Timberwolves made a consistent commitment to defense, to severely limit the number of times they’d let their opponent drive into the lane uncontested, how many points would that save? If they passed on those bad shots and passed the ball around looking for a good one, how many more points would they score? If they treated every possession like it was important, how many turnovers would that eliminate? Exactly one third of the Timberwolves games so far have gone into overtime or been decided by a basket or less. If the Wolves just constantly had the perspective that “this game tonight might come down to one basket, and here, right now, I’m going to make the play that makes the difference” what would that do to this team’s record? I think we all know the answer.
The Timberwolves have a new coach in Randy Wittman. And if he’s to be successful this season, it won’t thanks to his skills with the X’s and O’s. It will be because he instilled a new level of mental toughness in this Timberwolves basketball team. You can’t always control whether the basketball goes through the hoop. But you can play good defense. You can make good passes. You can hustle. Those are the things that will tilt the close games into the Timberwolves favor.
This team is 20-22 right now. If they keep up their current level, they might be able to sneak into the eight playoff spot in time to get swept out of the first round. If they get mentally tough, they may be able to steal a good seed away and actually make some post-season noise. The goal, should be to finish the season with 50 wins. That’s a 30-10 finish from here until April. A stretch? Not if this team keeps their eyes on the finishline every night and does all the little things to make sure they’re the team that gets to cross it. Halfway through the season, the Wolves have been “so close”. Thankfully, they’re also not that “far”.
Predictions:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division:
1. New Jersey
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Philadelphia
5. Boston
Central Division:
1. Detroit
2. Chicago
3. Cleveland
4. Indiana
5. Milwaukee
Southeast Division
1. Washington
2. Miami
3. Orlando
4. Charlotte
5. Atlanta
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest Division
1. Utah
2. Minnesota
3. Denver
4. Portland
5. Seattle
Pacific Division
1. Phoenix
2. Los Angeles Lakers
3. Los Angeles Clippers
4. Golden State
5. Sacramento
Southwest Division
1. Dallas
2. San Antonio
3. Houston
4. New Orleans
5. Memphis
PLAYOFFS:
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Detroit
2. Washington
3. Chicago
4. New Jersey
5. Cleveland
6. Miami
7. Orlando
8. Indiana
First Round:
Detroit over Indiana
Washington over Orlando
Chicago over Miami
Cleveland over New Jersey
Conference Semifinals:
Detroit over Cleveland
Washington over Chicago
Conference Finals:
Washington over Detroit
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Phoenix
2. Dallas
3. San Antonio
4. Utah
5. Los Angeles Lakers
6. Houston
7. Minnesota
8. Denver
First Round:
Phoenix over Denver
Dallas over Minnesota
San Antonio over Houston
Los Angeles Lakers over Utah
Conference Semifinals:
Phoenix over Los Angeles Lakers
Dallas over San Antonio
Conference Finals:
Phoenix over Dallas
NBA FINALS:
Phoenix over Washington
