The two tribes merge on Survivor: Cook Islands.
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Survivor: Cook Islands Blog
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| Overall the merge was fairly uneventful. Other than the Yul/Jonathan discussions, which I’ll get to in a moment, the tribes stayed pretty much divided. Only Nate and Ozzy appeared to be potential alliance partners, but Ozzy stuck to his guns and was 100% dedicated to Aitu. I personally thought that showed a lot of built character, since he was willing to throw challenges and sell-out his tribe early on.
2. Ozzy Made the Merge. Can I pick ’em, or can I pick ’em? With Ozzy making the merge, that puts my all-time records at the following: My early picks to win who have… Made the Merge: 12/12 Made the Jury: 11/12 Made the Final Four: 7/11 Made the Final Two: 6/11 Won the Game: 4/11 And if things stay calm and Ozzy tears up the challenges at the end like he should, he might push those last three to 8/12, 7/12, and 5/12 respectively. I’d say he’s the favorite to win at this point. Who would’ve thought after Episode 2? 3. White People are Stupid. I can’t believe how poorly the game was played by the old Raro members after Ozzy won the immunity challenge. Think about this: You’ve got the numbers 5-4. Ozzy can’t be voted out since he won immunity. Yul is the only person on Aitu who’s even been to Exile Island and could have the hidden idol. Voting for Sundra or Becky, while not eliminating a threat, gets you a guaranteed 5-3 advantage. With that 5-3 advantage, you can now pick off either Ozzy or Yul (whoever doesn’t have immunity) and if the idol pops up and nails you, you’re still up 4-3. You run the table from there. So who does Raro vote for? Well, not that it mattered anyway since he had the idol, but they went after Yul. So had Jonathan not pulled the fast one I’ll cover in a moment, Nate would have been nailed by the idol and we would have had a 4-4 tie. Now it’s anyone’s game. How dumb was that? Talk about chucking away the game! 4. And White People Are Still Very, Very, Sneaky. Aitu’s down 5-4, so Yul knows that there’s always the potential for his hidden idol to neutralize the numbers to 4-4. But that’s still risky, because you could still end up being down 4-3 if you lost the tie-breaker. So who does Yul intelligently target? The one person on Raro who is rational enough to only look out for himself: Jonathan. Over the course of several conversations, Yul told Jonathan that he had the idol and that he should come on as the fifth person in Aitu’s alliance. It was a tough move for Jonathan to make, because by doing so, he would have effectively stabbed every single survivor in the back. But by not doing so, he would have really angered Aitu, and put himself in a situation where he was either voted off or down in numbers. So let’s look at Jonathan’s options: Go with Aitu: He’d have stabbed everyone in the back. He’d be the fifth person to go, unless somebody on Aitu starts playing the game really hard and takes him to the final two for the easy win. Absolute Best Case Scenario: 2nd place and $100,000 Lie to Yul and vote him out, but keep the idol a secret: Now Aitu would really hate him. However, Yul would have received 5 votes to Nate’s 4, which would have put the idol into play, knocking out Nate and evening things at 4-4. With the idol gone, now Jonathan just has to hope that Raro wins the tie-breaker and goes up 4-3. If they do, he’s likely to be in the final four. And if people were smart, he’d also be dragged along for an easy win. Unless, it came down to him and Candice, where in that case, he might actually win the whole thing! Absolute Best Case Scenario: 1st place and $1,000,000 Tell Raro that Yul has the idol: Raro votes out Becky, putting them up 5-3. Now Aitu will start voting for Jonathan at every tribal council, so when the Idol does rear it’s head, Jonathan ends up going. Absolute Best Case Secnario: 5th place So did Jonathan make the right choice? Well, he definitely cost himself his one shot at the million. But those odds were so long, it’s not really that big of a deal. If you’re him, you have to figure out your best shot at the hundred grand. Adam, Parvati, and Candice are all far too stupid to realize that he’s their golden ticket to a million bucks, so they’d probably vote him out to keep their 3-way romance alive. And Yul did tell Jonathan that he wanted to take him to the final two. Granted, it was a lie because I can’t imagine Yul betraying Becky, especially when he’d kill her in the vote anyway, but at least Jonathan had that to hang his hat on. If I were Jonathan, I would have gone with Aitu. It was definitely his best shot of walking away with some cash. However, that’s not necessarily true since if I were Jonathan, I would have never left Team CaucAsian in the first place and would still have a decent shot at the million. I totally need to get on this show! |
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