Survivor: Exile Island – Episode 1

Survivor Panama: Exile Island Blog
Episode 1 Elimination: Tina

When I first saw our group of castaways I had two people pegged as the first to go: Tina or Cirie.  Tina just screamed White trash, which is never a good thing, and Cirie had that look about her where she’d be useless at challenges and probably around camp.  Let’s just say that I nailed the both.  You pick up this stuff after twelve seasons.

So the 16 castaways were broken up into four groups by gender and age.  A unique angle, but ultimately one that’s certain to spell doom for

So here’s my impression of the other three tribes.  The young men are just plain stupid.  Maybe Nick could pull it out, but the other three have no chance.

The younger women aren’t that much smarter, but I do see a potential winner in the group.  And while we’re on it, just a terrible move by Misty pretending to have the immunity idol.  It’s one thing to pretend you don’t have it when you do.  It’s just plain stupid to act like you have it when you don’t.  Talk about putting a giant target on your back for no reason.  She’s toast.

And the older men have got it pretty much together.  From next week’s previews it appears Shane is going to have a mental breakdown (not surprising) but the other three seem solid.

So now for my prediction on who’ll win it all.  Just for the record, I’ve nailed the winner 4 out of 10 times so far. (I didn’t watch Season 1 when it first came out.) I’ve correctly picked Ethan in Africa, Brian in Thailand, Sandra in Pearl Islands, and Tom in Palau.  And when you widen my margin of error a bit and include Boston Rob in All-Stars and Stephenie in Guatamala, I’m an uncanny 6 of 10 when picking a member of the final two.  So this does bear some weight.  Here are the people that made me think twice about them:

Nick: He seems to be the only young guy with half a brain, but being surrounded by idiots doesn’t help his cause.  Chances: 10:1

Bruce:  He’s the guy everyone is going to like.  He’s the Rupert (Pearl Islands), the Roger (Australia), the Gary (Guatamala).  Those guys just never win.  He’ll go far, but towards the end everyone will start gunning for him. Chances: 7:1

Terry:  He has the Tom (Palau) hero thing going on.  But Tom was the only guy like that to pull it off.  And he did that thanks to a rock-solid alliance with Ian.  Now Terry seems to have Steve Buschemi, I mean, Dan the Astronaut in his back pocket.  So the two of them are definitely a threat to go all the way.  Chances: 3.5:1 for Terry, 4:1 for Skeletor.

And my pony for Survivor Panama: Exile Island: Sally.  She’s a woman, so she’s automatically at an advantage. (Women have won 6 out of 11 Survivors) She can fly under the radar, which none of the aforementioned individuals can do.  Plus she seems to have her head on straight, which is more than can be said for 75% of the people out there.  All in all, she looks like a solid pick.  I’m ready to make it 5 out of 11.  Chances:  2.5:1

Wow, that was long…