A fourth elimination puts La Mina at a disadvantage.
|
|
Survivor Panama: Exile Island Blog
|
|
notes dropped on me four days before a test, and I locked my keys in the car while it was still running. And that’s just the short list of bad things. In that context, it’s no surprise that my elimination pick for this episode was not Cirie, but Sally. It just wasn’t my day, and my pony was bound to go down. That being said, it came as no shock, when Astro Dan made a pact with Ruth Marie to take her to the final five, solidifying Sally as the odd woman out. Of course Terry, Nick, and Austin agreed, making this episodes immunity challenge a do or die. At this point, I’m just in shock that a girl who seemed like such a solid pick, is going down in episode four. We move on to the reward challenge, where the prize is a shamelessly-plugged Charmin bathroom. In this challenge, the Survivors had to swim out and collect puzzle pieces and then assemble them. This challenge required physical skill and brains, so of course the mental midgets of Casaya somehow pulled it out. This was a team that I doubted could win a single challenge. I figured the only way they’d get ever get immunity is if the producers rigged it by setting up a fire dancing competition. Now Casaya has inexplicably won two in a row. Yup, time to pack your bags, Sally. In addition to their new porta-potty, Casaya got to send a member of La Mina to Exile Island. They chose Terry, because he’s the team’s star. Sending the best player to Exile Island seems to be the overwhelming strategy so far. And I admint, initially, I was for it. Casaya was just devastated when they lost Bruce last week. However, Casaya then proceeded to win immunity making it obvious that losing Mr. Miyagi for two days didn’t make that big of a difference. So while this may appear to be 20/20 hindsight in lieu of what happens next, I really did think the following as they were sending Terry off: “Do you really want to give that guy a chance to find the immunity idol? Wouldn’t you be much better off sending Ruth Marie, since her odds of winning this thing are like a million to one?” But strategy’s pretty much gone out the window this season, so off Terry went. And as predicted, the guy had immunity about ten minutes after stepping foot on Exile Island. I’m not surprised. They made it extremely obvious where to look. I figured that the idol was either way up in a tree or buried underground. That’s the only way somebody wouldn’t see it by just looking around. Bruce had five days where the only thing to do was to look for the idol. If it were out in the open, he’d have it. The reason the location of the idol was so obvious was the way the first clue was written out. It said “think about “why” fate has placed you here.” When they finally showed that to us, I thought, “Hmm… I wonder why “why” is quoted?” Maybe you need to find a “Y”. Sure enough, there’s a giant “Y” shaped tree on the island. I knew it was either up in it’s branches or down by it’s roots. Terry went digging. And before we move on, I’d like to compliment Terry on a nice Shawshank analogy. His comments as he dug out the idol: “This has no earthly business in the Panamanian jungle” was a nice tribute to Andy Dufrense’s description of a “piece of volcanic glass that has no earthly business in a Maine hayfield.” And yes, I realize that I am an incredible loser… Anyway, back at Casaya. Dumb Aras, the village idiot in a tribe of village idiots wants to use their new bathroom to store firewood. Excuse me? You’re going to keep dropping anchor out in the jungle where a venomous snake could bite you in the no-no spot at any given moment, so you can store fire wood? I’m with Bobby 100% here. While I probably wouldn’t have admitted to taking the biggest crap in Survivor history, I’m using the john as a john. In other news, Shane’s mental breakdown continues. And Cirie, once destined to be the next one voted off, may just turn the tables on them all! So now it’s time for the immunity challenge. It’s do or die time for Sally, and the girl absolutely dominates the competition. Unfortunately, Skeletor wasn’t all that nimble and fell off the balance beams, ultimately costing La Mina the challenge. And just like that, my chances at correctly picking the winner fall to pieces… Except that Austin, who is by far the dumbest person in his tribe, is the only one smart enough to realize that Sally’s got a lot more to offer than Ruth Marie, and campaigns to keep her. Terry, a fool by no means, realizes this and quickly jumps ship using the cop-out “I never shook hands with her” excuse. I’m loving it! Of course Astro Dan isn’t too pleased by the decision and keeps plugging away for Ruth Marie. And then they show Nick saying how he doesn’t think he can stab Ruth Marie in the back. So now I’m getting nervous. Were Austin and Terry just toying with me? Could we possibly have a 3-3 split? At tribal council, Jeff proceeds to practically give away the fact that Terry found the immunity idol. “Hey Terry, you didn’t find the idol, did you? Did you guys ask him if he found the idol? Are you sure you want to believe him? Terry’s a pretty smart guy, you know. Are you keeping somthing from us Terry? Are you sure there’s nothing you want to tell us? Anything?” Ok, so it wasn’t that bad. But a few more weeks of this and you’d be a fool to not to know that Terry’s got a huge advantage over everyone else. So the votes are read and the decision is final… and RUTH MARIE is asked to leave the tribal council area immediately! Big surprise, huh? It’s not like the picture at the top gave it away or anything… But needless to say, Survivor made my horrible day a whole lot better!
Now onto my winner predictions… As promised… Cirie: She’s the smartest person on her tribe, no doubt. Bruce sure didn’t boost my confidence in him by failing to figure out the “why” clue after five days. If she can just make it past the inevitable implosion of Casaya, she could be good to go. The only thing you have to question is her ability to win the final immunity challenge. Assuming she’s not going to last three seconds balancing herself on post, would anybody dare take her with them? Last Week’s Chances: N/A This Week: 18:1 Austin: He proved he has some brains. I like his chances a whole lot more now. Plus he has Terry and Nick to take the attention off him. I like it! Last Week’s Chances: 7:1 This Week: 5:1 Nick: He’s got the target on his back. And his qualms with voting off Ruth Marie show that he might not have the killer instincts to put the game away in the end. Last Week’s Chances: 4:1 This Week: 6:1 Bruce: Casaya’s winning, so he could go far if it keeps up. But he just has to hope that the axis of idiots breaks up or he could find himself on the outside. Last Week’s Chances: 12:1 This Week’s Chances: 8:1 Terry: He’s got the immunity idol, which will save him once, but that’s not all… Probably the most underlooked factor in all of this is that the person with the second-most votes gets kicked out once Terry turns in the idol. Think about it… Let’s say Casaya goes in with a 5-4 advantage and wants Terry out. La Mina casts four votes for, let’s just say, Shane. Casaya casts five votes for Terry. Who’s going home? Not a member of La Mina. Shane’s going home! That means that Casaya’s numbers advantage is completely gone! Terry’s idol not only protects himself, but his entire alliance. Having that idol is monumental. Last Week’s Chances for Terry: 3:1 This Week’s Chances: 2:1 Dan: He’s so afraid of being backstabbed, that he’s paralyzing himself. Come on Dan! Ruth Marie? There’s no way this guy wins the game if he keeps playing this way. Last Week’s Chances for Dan: 5:1 This Week’s Chances: 9:1 And as for my pony on Survivor Panama: Exile Island, Sally: She’s one La Mina loss away from heading home. Unless, of course, Austin sticks up for her again. And he’d be a fool not to. Let’s face it, Astro Dan may have landd on the moon, but he’s no Olympian. But alliances aside, you’ve got to like how solid the La Mina five are right now. They’ll be a tough group to beat, unless they rig contest to see who can produce the biggest turd. That one undoubtedly goes to Bobby. Last Week’s Chances: 20:1 This Week’s Chances: 30:1 You couldn’t have sent Sally to Exile Island, could you Casaya? |
|
