Survivor: Exile Island – Episode 7

Survivor Panama: Exile Island Blog
Episode 7 Elimination: Nick

Again no opening credits!  I think it’s time to give up on my quest to save them. You won’t have to hear me whine about this any more.

So this was the big merge episode, spelling doom for La Mina who was down 4-6 in the numbers.  Overall, there was nothing really notable that happened, other than Bruce getting chopped in the face with a machete.  So I’m just going to focus on the merge and the strategy (or lack thereof) that’s being used at this point in the game. 

Here’s a quick breakdown of where things stood going into the merge:

Pretty bad for La Mina, except that Terry has the hidden immunity idol.  La Mina’s whole strategy going into this was to try and get two people to flip – something highly unlikely.  Shane, for all of his insane behavior, actually showed a level of intelligence seldomly seen on this show with the way he rallied his tribe and squelched any ideas of flipping sides.  Two people flipping just wasn’t going to happen.

La Mina’s best bet was that Bruce would flip, evening the score at 5-5.  But why would you do this if you were Bruce?  5-5 guarantees you nothing.  You might lose the tie-breaker and be down in the numbers, instead of up 6-4.  Plus, the Axis of Idiots is bound to turn on each other eventually, so even though he’s an outsider, he could easily sneak his way to the final four.  A flip just wasn’t in the cards.

So if I’m Terry, here’s what I do:  I know I’m the number one person that Casaya is gunning for.  And my immunity will save me once, but that’s it.  Do I really believe that I can win seven of eight individual immunities?  Probably not.  So I need to use the idol to get the numbers back on my side.

Terry needed to purposely lose immunity so that Casaya would vote him out.  Terry’s immunity idol would protect him, and turn the tables so that the person with the second most votes, a Casaya member, would actually go home. Here’s what we would have been left with:

By taking the immunity hit, Terry’s getting rid of Shane, who’s holding his team together, and the numbers go to 4-5.  Now you can start talking to Bruce about flipping, because he’ll actually give you the numbers.  If Terry got the numbers to 4-5 and told Bruce that if he flipped, he would take him to the final two, there’s no way Bruce isn’t jumping on that.  He’s already an outcast on his team, and you’ve just offered him numbers and an alliance with the most powerful player in the game.  Now here’s how it looks:

Terry is now guaranteed the final five.  He can pick off Casaya one by one.  When it gets to the final five, Nick, Austin, and Sally might turn on him.  But if he played his cards right, he should have told the team his plan and had them promise him Final Four for taking the bullet and giving up immunity.

That my friends, is how you play the game.

Of course Terry is an idiot and won immunity, costing Nick his chance at a million bucks.

Now onto my winner predictions…

Cirie:  Flying under the radar, Cirie is almost a mortal lock for the final four.  I just can’t figure out how she’ll ever win the final immunity.  And who wants to sit next to her?

Last Week’s Chances: 8:1  This Week:  7:1

Austin:  Austin is almost guaranteed to be the next to go, seeing as Terry is letting his immunity idol out of the bag this week.

Last Week’s Chances: 7:1  This Week: 7,000:1

Terry:  Apparently, he’ll try to trade his immunity away. It’s hard to say if anyone will be a taker, since you can’t use it past the final four and Terry has to have a promise of at least that far to give it away.  And do you really want to be with him at the end of the game?  But who knows with these idiots?

Terry’s better bet:  Reveal that he has it and use it as a threat:  “You wanna vote me out Casaya?  Go ahead and try!”  You’d have to think twice about casting a vote for the guy, because if you’re the person with the second most votes, you’re gone.

Last Week’s Chances for Terry: 12:1   This Week’s Chances:  10:1

Shane:  He’s doing an amazing job of keeping his team strong.  I don’t know why you’d vote him off, knowing anybody sitting next to him at the end is guaranteed to become a millionaire.

Last Week’s Chances for Shane: 30:1   This Week’s Chances: 25:1

Danielle:  She’s staying strong with Courtney.  Another lock for the final four.

Last Week’s Chances for Danielle: 7:1   This Week’s Chances: 4:1

The Fire Dancer:  She’s as dumb as nails and as annoying as fingernails on a chalk board. But you have to give the girl credit for putting herself in a position to win.  Problem is, she’s not getting the votes at the end unless she’s sitting across from Shane.

Last Week’s Chances for Courtney:  25:1   This Week’s Chances:  20:1

Dumb Aras:  If Casaya can hold off La Mina, he’ll probably be in the final four with Cirie, Danielle, and Courtney.  It would take two immunity wins to get him to the final, but look who he’s competing against!

Last Week’s Chances for Aras: 12:1  This Week’s Chances:  7:1

And as for my pony on Survivor Panama: Exile Island, Sally: Her one and only hope is to be the last La Mina member left and then fly under the radar while Casaya turns against itself.  But if Terry manages to secure some favor with his immunity idol, she’s all but done for. 

Last Week’s Chances:  15:1  This Week’s Chances: 18:1

And once again, there’s Bruce.  I still haven’t come up with a way that he makes the final four.  We’ll keep him at 0:1.