Survivor: Exile Island – Episode 8

Survivor Panama: Exile Island Blog
Episode 8 Elimination: Austin

This was an absolutely huge episode for the former La Mina tribe.  Down 3 to 6 in the numbers, it was going to take a blockbuster move to turn the tables on the Axis of Idiots.

Austin had managed to single himself out with his idiotic comments at Tribal Council.  (I don’t know how I forget to mention this last week.)  Blatantly admitting to tanking a challenge in order to look weak is something you do after your torch is snuffed.  And if you have any doubts

about that, then just look who’s picture is in the left-hand corner.  Thankfully, he managed to take the heat off of Sally, at least for one week.

Like last week’s episode, there really wasn’t much in the way of drama.  So once again, I’ll do a strategy focused entry to the blog.  But before I get to the in-depth analysis, here’s a quick recap.

The reward challenge broke Gitanos up into three groups which ended up being completely unfair.  You had the powerhouses of Terry, Austin, and Shane, the terrible trio of Cirie, Courtney, and Danielle, and in between were Sally, Bruce, and Aras.  Each team was given 100 coconuts to drop into either of the other two teams’ boats, thereby weighing it down and making the challenge much more difficult.  Dumb Aras proved to not be so dumb after all, and tricked the women into dumping everything into men’s boat.  This allowed Sally, Bruce, and himself to clean up the challenge since the men were bogged down, and the women couldn’t have won with an electric motor strapped to their boat.  Of course now that everyone realized Aras isn’t a moron, he’s got a nice target on his back. So maybe Dumb Aras is still a fitting nickname…

…especially considering that they won the worst reward ever.  “Breakfast in Bed” sound nice until you realize the bed is situated in the middle of a tropical storm.  Aras also got to send two players to Exile Island and chose Austin and Danielle, who proceeded to get absolutely trashed with rain for two straight days.  This of course led to the evening’s highlight: Austin telling Jeff Probst “We feared hypothermia.”  And if that doesn’t translate as well on the computer as it did on TV, then I guess you have to know Austin to appreciate that comment.

Terry ended up winning immunity, which then allowed him to contemplate giving away the hidden immunity idol.  He managed to get Shane to reveal that Bruce and Danielle weren’t in his plans for the final four, which set up a very interesting proposal…  Terry would give Danielle the immunity idol if she joined  forces with La Mina.  And Bruce, who knows he was on the outside, was all too happy to jump ship as well.

It looked like the perfect plan.  It sure impressed me, seeing as I thought there was no chance of him getting the numbers after he bypassed the strategy I proposed last week.  It was all contingent on Danielle being smart enough to realize that her Casaya buddies were planning on cutting her throat, and that flipping sides would guarantee her a spot in the final four…

…So maybe it wasn’t the perfect plan after all!  Once again, the Axis of Idiots prevailed, and America was left wondering if they’d even bother to tune into a final four that included Shane, Courtney, and Dumb Aras.

Now onto my winner predictions…

Cirie:  Cirie’s a lock for the Final Four.  I can’t imagine a scenario where she doesn’t make it.  And that’s astounding considering she was my pre-show pick to go for the first four weeks.

Last Week’s Chances: 7:1  This Week:  6:1

Terry:  You know, there’s actually a chance that Terry could run the table on immunity challenges.  It really wouldn’t surprise me at this point.  But if he feels like using a little strategy, his one remaining shot might be to put the immunity idol in the hands of Aras. The dude had a hissy-fit with his team because he was scared that Austin had the idol and voting for him would end up getting Aras eliminated. He’s scared of the idol.  In fact, there’s not a doubt in my mind that he left a urine stain on the tribal council bench while waiting to see if Austin would pull it out at the end.  So it’s possible that he might be willing to cut a deal in order to ensure he won’t end up on the short end when it finally gets played.

Last Week’s Chances for Terry: 10:1   This Week’s Chances:  10:1

Dumb Aras:  Of course none of what I just wrote would matter if Aras was smart enough to realize that if Casaya splits their vote with 4 for Terry and 2 for Sally the immunity idol is history anyway.

Last Week’s Chances for Aras: 7:1  This Week’s Chances:  9:1

Shane:  I’m still waiting to see what Shane meant in the promo clip where he says “I’m turning this game around”.  It’s my one ray of hope for Sally.

Last Week’s Chances for Shane: 25:1   This Week’s Chances: 15:1

Danielle:  The dumbest thing Danielle could do would be to tell her tribe that Terry has the idol.  She knows she’s on the outs, so why not improve her situation by letting Aras or Shane get nailed by it?  Plus, it always leaves her with the option of reconsidering Terry’s deal if things change.

That being said, 1:5 odds that she opens her mouth and lets the cat out of the bag.

Last Week’s Chances for Danielle: 4:1   This Week’s Chances: 12:1

The Fire Dancer:  You gotta hand it to her.  The girl is looking solid.  Stupid.  But solid.

Last Week’s Chances for Courtney:  20:1   This Week’s Chances:  15:1

And as for my pony on Survivor Panama: Exile Island, Sally: Unless she wins immunity, my girl is gone.  Danielle is probably going to tell everyone that Terry has the idol, and that will be that.  Unless an earth-shattering change takes place, immunity is her only shot. 

Last Week’s Chances:  18:1  This Week’s Chances: 40:1

And once again, Bruce is going strong at 0:1

And yes, I do realize that at the beginning of the show I had Sally with 2.5:1 odds of taking the game with 15 people still left, and now that there’s 8 we have Courtney, a mortal lock for the final four at 15:1.  It’s just that I can’t believe one of these morons is actually going to win the thing.  Every episode, I come up with more reasons why it’s not possible, yet every episode they get closer and closer to actually pulling it off.

It’s like the 2006 NFL playoffs.  You had Pittsburgh, Denver, Seattle, and Carolina in the Conference Championships. As impossible as it seemed that a a lackluster team like any of them would win the Super Bowl, it was inevitable.  Unless Terry runs the immunity table, that’s what we’re faced with.

Better odds next week, I promise.